What is happenning with Indian markets?

I was tempted as any other domestic investor looking at the forward momentum in the markets and believed at some point of time that Indian market is the only place for investors to be in. Liquidity strengthening every day pushed me close to the markets. I criticized the valuations when raised by people around me. But, I decided to eneter when I was somehow convinced that there is no right or correct levels to eneter to be part of this tremondous action. Another thing is that I couldn't have afforded anything better but stocks with the little money that I had at that time. I was very impulsive to sell TCS at 1800 levels hoping that stock would lose as there would be profit booking at this levels. But, question remains who can predict these markets and underlying commodities of these markets like TCS. TCS reached even 2000 before losing great deal on this black Wednesday. Unfortunately, I did not own the stocks I sold at that time but owned by my friends but are held in my trading account. To minimise losses, I had to put in whatever I have into stocks that I believed have good potential but only to be hammered by this deep correction on black Wednesday, when sensex lost 306 points on a single day with loosing almost 200 points in a single trading session.

What corrected these markets is the question that is answered by all the professionals but nothing convinced me so far. Udayan of TV-18 was of the opinion that weakness in the global markets caused the downfall. When our maekets trading crazily, I heard him say that Indian markets no more follow global markets. Another interesting aspect is the Dow, Index that was beaten by our Sensex very recently, went up by over 40 points as I write this but Sensex remains to have upper hand even after loosing over 300 points. US Markets have been trading caustiously only because of the inflation worries. I am not convinced of a reason like this about our Indian markets.

But, one needs to look at history before taking a decision on whether to enter or exit. I remember black Monady when UPA was formed almost 2 years back, markets responded crashing down by 570 points. You pick a stock and analyse it over two years and you would be amazed at the growth. One did not necessarily have to know what SENSEX is in those days but just needed a trading account and little bit of money to play with. Those who had entered then made pretty decent returns if they were patient. I will be watching markets on Thursday hoping another fall if not so steep as it was. Another 100 points correction would make frontliners available at attractive prices.

To explain how unreasonable this market is, I was closely looking at SBI. Employees went on a nation-wide strike for 6 days and clearly there were no signs of ending that. But, stock continued to go up from 920 to 1000 only to fall down to 940 as markets corrected. I expected SBI to hit its lowest during the strike after all bank was not functioning at all during the strike. Take a look at MPHASIS BFL. It came up with stunning numbers and analysts even lauded their efforts but stock went down by 3%. Everyone was saying that fresh money should not be invested in equities in the month of March after all SENSEX traded weak in March for the last 5 years consistently but this year it gained 9% in March.

I will only be very caustious and will make sure greed does not overtake the conscience anytime!