What lies ahead for TRS in AP Politics?

This is an interesting bye election in Andhra Pradesh. For those who have not been tracking news, 16 TRS Legislators resigned from the Assembly on 7th Mar'08, shortly after 4 TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) Loksabha MPs subimmited resignations to speaker at the center as it became clear that Congress is not all that serious about separate state for Telangana as promised before the polls.

We had bye elections in 18 assembly constituencies and 4 loksabha constituencies out of which I am only interested in the results of the 16 assembly constituencies and 4 loksabha constituencies. Other 2 Assembly constituencies were vacant as the representatives passed away during the term. All these 16 TRS former legislators did not merely win in the 2004 election on TRS Agenda but won as the major party did not field candidates because of the pre-poll alliance between TRS and Congress. Add to this, TDP leaders could not actively campaign in Telangana due to threats issued by Naxal leaders then. So, it was a free ride in the last election for most TRS leaders and they have successfully claimed in last 4 years that the verdict was clearly a mandate for separate Telangana.

Out of 16 Assembly constituencies, Congress won 5, TDP won 4 and TRS won 7. Out of 4 loksabha constituencies, TRS won 2 and 1 each for TDP and Congress. TRS did better than the other 2 parties for sure but all 16 seats were originally represented by TRS. If 2004 verdict was for separate statehood, the verdict this time is for united Andhra Pradesh. Telangana movement has been active since the birth of states reorganization committee but no movement so far in the history ever came as close as what TRS could achieve. Before 2004 elections, its leaders convinced many leaders at the national level and it appeared that it is all set to separate Telangana from AP in this 5 year term.

The leader himself won the election narrowly this time (won by 15k votes), which is an indication of loss of confidence in the leadership. As a leader, he lost all the credibility and there are not that many leaders in the party to lead the movement now. TRS stood second only in 2 constituencies and also Loksatta did very well considering its ideology and limited resources available with them compared to all other parties in the race.

What lies ahead for Telangana Rashtra Samithi party and its leader, K Chandra Sekhar Rao (popularly known as KCR)? Congress under the leadership of YSR can run the Govt till the year end and call for elections. Or, he may decide to go for polls early and cash in the failure of TRS to impress the people of Telangana. Congress senior leaders from Telangana have been disappointed by Congress high command but now their concerns make no sense as Congress won 5, contrary to the predictions made by some Congress senior leaders. If YSR goes for early polls, Chiranjeevi may not have all the time to build the cadre and strength required to compete. Chiranjeevi's party, planned to be officially announced in August , may be a bigger threat for both Congress and TDP. 2009 election will be very different from 2004 election. TRS will have to fight alone or join hands with BJP, in which case TDP will not ally with BJP. BJP will have to find a partner but who will join them is a question. Chiranjeevi party is another party that has to ally with someone in state. My sense is TRS joins BJP; TDP will form an alliance with CPI and CPM; Congress on its own; Chiranjeevi party joins hands with Loksatta and BSP. This would be an interesting election for sure.